A dictator is always alone since he has neither any counterpower nor anyone to contadict him. Once an autocrat has embarked on a destructive madness, it becomes difficult to anticipate what will stop him. This is what in its previous article, Contrib’City had ‘thought’ of – an invasion of Eastern Ukraine – but not of the entire territory of this country (at least not right away). CC had hence, anticipated of a war but at a smaller scale.
Within the forces of opposition to the Russian Chief, CC may also have underestimated the capacity of the media : apart from Russia which broadcasts photos of an unexploded Kyiv, it seems that the ‘Macho Man’ of the Kremlin lost the picture battle. In numerous megacities, peaceful manifestations in support of Ukraine have been organized.
If the Westerners were not ready to die for this country, it seemed that the Ukrainians themselves were ready to do so : the resistance, supported by the anti-war weapons which came from Germany (the first one !), slowed down the Russian invasion. The time nevertheless, played against the invaders. Everyday, the media covers the battle of Kiev and sensitizes, with images of bombardments, of firing, of exodus and of child victims, about the horrors of the war. These photos rekindle memories which the Europeans and the Americans believed belonged to the past and underline the seriousness of what the Russian dictator has just unleashed.
But the invasion is in the process of arriving at a critical point. Regardless of the issue of the Ukrainian battle – the definitive installation of the Russian army will subsequently either be replaced by a puppet government at the behest of Moscow or lead to a stalemate of war detrimental to the Russians – the strongman of Kremlin will be forced to face a difficult decision. Either he will lose the face before the entire world, or he will lock himself up in a death spiral. Yet, if he threatened the West with nuclear weapons, he has forgotten to clarify a point : his nation did not invent this weapon of mass destruction (WMD). In other words, he is not the only one to possess the atom bomb.
De l’autre côté, les Européens et les Américains s’étaient engagés à protéger l’Ukraine en contre-partie du démantèlement de son arsenal nucléaire. Si l’invasion de ce pays allait jusqu’au bout, cela serait un très mauvais signe pour une désescalade de l’armement dans le monde : cela confirmerait, une fois de plus, que les AMD sont « indispensables » pour garantir la sécurité militaire d’une nation.
On the other hand, the Europeans and the Americans were committed to protecting Ukraine in return of the latter disbanding its nuclear program. If the invasion of this country went through, it would be an extremely bad sign for a descalation of arms in the world : it will confirm, once again, that the WMD are ‘indispensable’ for guaranteeing the military security of a nation.
Finally, even if the measures of economic sanctions against Russia, and notably against the superman of Kremlin and his circle, can (partially) be circumevented by the latter, they will still play a role as ‘itching powder’ against this billionaire nomenklatura. In effect, if the private jets or London residences or different bank accounts are blocked, that will impede not just the ‘jet-set’ in their leisure time but in the preservation of their property as well. All the money which is blocked in Russia, for an oligarch, is susceptible of being a subject of judicial inquiry from the day when the Russian government changes. One might question, for example, that how can one move from the status of a senior civil servant, particularly from being an incharge of the State enterprises, to that of a billionaire. Furthermore, if the Empire for all Russians became one day a democarcy (I want to speak of a nation where any political opponent does not end up being in prison or simply being assassinated), the strongman of Kremlin then risked of finding himself in face of a complaint for having engaging in warfare depite his nation not being attacked.
We will conclude by a hypothesis and a statement. The strong man of the Kremlin accuses the NATO of scheming against him to extend its influence upto the borders of Russia. We can see the post-Cold War evolution of the Europe in another way : the people would seem to prefer freedom over authoritarian regimes.
After the fall of Berlin Wall, the people of most of the Soviet republics free themselves from the Soviet bondage/oppression by choosing a democratic regime. If Russia wants to draw in these countries again, it must opt for what the citizens of these nations want : the independence ! If the euro-asian empire wants to constitute an influence group, it is not very complicated : a democratic system coupled with the immense wealth of the greatest country of the world (Russia has a land area of more than 17 million km2. Compare this with the 4 million km2 of the European Union, or again with the 1 million km2 of France, including its overseas regions and depatments and the Adélie land, or even the 0.6 million km2 of Ukraine.) will well attract many people !
The democracy, despite all its defects, remains the least worst/bad of all other regimes, for paraphrasing Churchill. Should we then be speaking of the shortcomings of the democracy or of the lacunas of its heads ? Yet, in this kind of organization, it is the people who lead : the famous démo (in Classical Greek : demo is the people and cratie is the power) ! Every problem in a democracy refers to our collective and individual responsibility. The responsibility is the opposite/reverse of freedom. Hope that all the former members of the soviet block have access, as rapidly as possible, to the democracy. May we, former democracies, help with courage the Ukrainians and all their neighbors of the north and of the east, to (re)conquer their liberty.
On the pages read,
On all the pages white
Bloodstone paper or ash
Your name is all I write
On the golden images
On the arms of warriors
On the crowns of kings
Your name is all I write
On the awakened paths
On the deployed roads
On the overflowing places
Your name is all I write
Liberty (extracts) in Poetry and truth 1942 (clandestined collection)
Translation: Vidhi Taparia.